Miguel Cabrera appears poised to be remembered as the best hitter of his generation. I always thought this distinction would belong to Albert Pujols, and it still may, but Cabrera is putting together a string of seasons that compares favorably with any stretch in the history of baseball. Cabrera is still only 31 years old (in April), and it seems like he's been around forever. Baseball fans remember the skinny guy from the Marlins 2003 World Series team, but the most recent seasons really burn themselves into the mind.
There are a number of reasons that 10 years, $292 million doesn't make sense. It really has nothing to do with the money. That just happens to be the "best hitter in baseball" going rate. When this deal expires, Cabrera will be 41 years old. Do the Tigers really think they are going to get $30 million per year production over the back end of this contract? More realistically, especially considering that Cabrera's PED of choice appears to be a steady diet of doughnuts, they will get 3-7 years of All Star level play, with either an early slow decline, or a steep drop off later in his 30's. Cabrera's weight has always been a problem, and his most recent weight loss still didn't land him in top athlete shape. While this does not affect his play now, it is very likely to contribute to his decline as he progresses in age.
With that said, the Tigers likely had to do this because the Dodgers would have thrown 100 years and 5 billion dollars at the guy if they hadn't (I'm half joking... They wouldn't really sign a guy to a contract that would expire 40-50 years after he dies, right?). They are clearly prepared to eat the bad years at the end for the HOF quality years at the beginning. I just wonder if the Tigers aren't getting into an Alex Rodriguez (not the steroid stuff, or being an overall douche... Just the decline in play and increased injuries) or an Albert Pujols situation where the contract backfires far too early and hurts the team's ability to sign young star players.
Dude, I feel like you missed a cheap shot there with that line about the Tigers "eating" the bad years at the end of the contract.
ReplyDeleteThat being said, I am more sympathetic to this contract than you are. Yeah, by the end, it's going to be awful, I agree. But I also don't think Cabrera's weight is as bad as you're suggesting here (he's not Pablo Sandoval, for instance); yes, he's a big guy, but it's also not like he's gotten less athletic--he just never was. And he looked worse because he moved from 1st base to 3rd; he's moving back to 1st (not that he's good there, either, but at least it's less damaging).
Plus, Ilitch is in his 80s and really wants to win a World Series--he needs Miggy around (not that his contract was close to the end, which does make this a bit odd), he's already paid Verlander, and he's trying to pay Scherzer (I don't know why they traded Fister). He doesn't care that much about the money, I don't think. He doesn't care about the financial impact 10 years from now. He cares about winning. I have a hard time knocking the guy for paying for what he wants--put your money into your team.
And the Dodgers will throw 100 years and 5 billion at him when he finishes with the Tigers, because they suck.