I fall pretty squarely in the yes category for this question. For a number of years, he was a top 3 QB (Manning and Brady were 1 and 2 for most of those). However, these years were his Arizona years at the end of his career. What I think gets him in is the early years with the Rams. He was probably the best QB in the league (in hindsight) for the few years that he was QB of the Rams (the last two years aside... those were a mess with poor play and the whole Mark Bulger crap). These years were prior to the ATG dominance that was Brady and Manning in the mid 2000s. I guess the one thing I wonder is if he had the same career, but starting two years later, would he be in... The answer is maybe not. I'm really big into defining a Hall of Fame career based on comparison to contemporaries, and Warner compares favorably. He was probably the best early, and he was probably third best during the Arizona years, primarily because Aaron Rodgers had not ascended to that upper eschelon yet.
This all seems like an arbitrary and very personal argument, and it's pretty good evidence that I shouldn't have a football HOF vote, but this is my view on the whole thing.
yes....in my opinion kurt warner is worthy as a hall of famer. not only was he the most important part of the "greatest show on turf" he also led a dormant arizona cardinals franchise into prominence and into a super bowl, losing on a play that has been one of the better catches in super bowl history. he had a bad stint in new york, but who doesnt??, and he rebounded to have a great end of his career. He didn't have a long career but warner changed the game of football. He went to three super bowls, one won, and every time he took a snap and went into a drop the potential of him getting a touchdown was there on every play. if not a first ballot he does deserve to be indicted at some point, no doubt about it.
ReplyDeleteWait, nobody is even going to look at stats? You guys have noted his argument is basically peak value over career, and his career rankings agree. He's in the 30s in terms of all-time rankings for completions, passing yards, and passing touchdowns, but top ten for YPG and QB rating. But the MVPs and Pro-Bowl selections attest to his standing at his peak.
ReplyDeleteI also think it's worth considering his postseasons (since that's what Peyton Manning is currently getting destroyed for, and Joe Flacco getting lauded for). Granted, these numbers are skewed a bit because his less impressive seasons from 2002-7 weren't on playoff teams. But. His completion percentage is a full point higher than his career average, TD percentage 1.6% higher, INT percentage a tick lower, Y/A up .7, Y/C up .8, Y/G up 44, and QB rating up 9.1.
And of course there's the eye test, which I think we all agree on. I think he should be in.
Also: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2014/kurt-warner-hall-fame-case has a good, way more thorough breakdown.