Wednesday, June 4, 2014

QB salaries

There are 4 truly elite QBs in the NFL (currently).  One of those guys, Peyton Manning, is likely on the way out.  It was obvious in the Super Bowl that his arm strength is a problem going forward.  The other three are Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers, in whichever order you prefer.  Those players have gigantic salaries (Brady a little less-so) and can single-handedly win your team a title. With that said, a lot of QBs are getting exorbitant contracts that may significantly alter their abilities to keep other important players on the roster.  This post was prompted by Colin Kaepernick's mega deal.

1.  Matt Ryan, 5 year 103.75M extension - Matt Ryan is a nice QB.  However, there is a reason that I refer to him as Matty Checkdown.  He really struggles to push the ball down the field even when players are open.  He has done a little better with Julio Jones on the field, but he is still not a guy that I would trust to win my team a big game by throwing the ball down the field.  Matt Ryan is a guy capable of winning a title, but not with a mediocre team around him.  He is currently surrounded by a mediocre team.

2.  Jay Cutler, 7 years 126M - Jay Cutler has a cannon... And a propensity to throw interceptions, even to the Packers' porous defense.  I like Cutler and think he got a bad rap for leaving the NFC Championship Game a few years back.  His knee was in bad shape and it was the right call.  However, Cutler is way too mistake-prone to warrant sacrificing your salary cap.

3.  Tony Romo, 6 years 108M - Tony Romo is baffling.  He does amazing things on the field.  I am usually not a believer in the whole clutch thing, but Romo really makes me question this stance.  He seems to come up small in most big situations.  It has defined his career.  It may be bad luck, but it is the worst bad luck if this is the case.  If Tony Romo is playing with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line in the last 4 minutes, I'm probably lining up to bet substantial money that he will either throw a terrible INT or fumble the game away.

4. Joe Flacco, 6 Years 120.6M -  I'll give credit to Flacco.  His Super Bowl run was spectacular... Steve Young spectacular.  He was promptly given a ginormous contract.  He then proceeded to play even worse than the Joe Flacco we had all come to know and think sucked.  This guy is sucking up an average of ~1/6 of the salary cap of his team.  He is not very good.  Enough said.

5.  Colin Kaepernick 6 years 126M - Colin Kaepernick does some amazing things with his legs.  He has a good arm.  He kills my Packers.  I hate the guy because he is always kissing his biceps after making AJ Hawk and whoever the crappy OLB opposite Matthews du jour happens to be look even slower and more unathletic than they actually are.  With that said, Kaepernick is not a refined thrower.  If we've learned anything through the era of the athletic QB, it's that the guys who run a ton, but are flawed as passers are equally flawed overall.  On this list, Kaepernick is the guy I have the most chance to be wrong about because he could improve.  However, it is going to be very hard to keep that awesome defense intact with this albatross of a contract in place.

*6/7 Russell Wilson and Alex Smith (ALEX SMITH!) are both going to get huge extensions soon.  They will both hurt the abilities of their teams to keep valuable contributors on defense, resulting in a decline for the team as a whole.  Both QBs are decent, but not guys who can carry a team the way the top few QBs can carry a team.

I have obviously left Brady, Brees, and Rodgers out of this list.  They can and have carried their teams deep into the playoffs despite terrible defenses/offensive lines/receivers/[insert your own team deficiency here].  These guys will make the playoffs nearly every year even with bad players around them.  The guys above will not (or maybe they will, and I will have to eat crow).  Brennan, I know you love the 49ers, but you also know that I'm right about Kaepernick!

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