Okay, you all knew it was coming. Adrian Beltre hit his 400th home run. He is a future hall of famer. Period. Here is my reasoning:
1) He hit 400 home runs*
2) He was probably the best defensive 3B of his generation (arguable of course, but still way up
there)
3) He will likely end up with 3000 hits (he currently has 2650)*
4) He has 1399 RBI, currently good for 77th all time. 127 more RBI put him in the top 50.*
5) He is 66th career in WAR, and the list of players below him is littered with hall of famers.*
6) He is ranked 6th all time in JAWS, which is calculated using overall WAR and WAR during peak
years, among third baseman, which all of the top 10 in the HOF except for Chipper Jones, who
has not reached eligibility.#
*All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com* and Sports-Reference.com#
Beltre is a hall of famer. Hopefully the baseball writers agree.
I think the writers will agree. They seem to realize that 3rd base is underrepresented, and Beltre will have some nice round traditional-number benchmarks as well as advanced stats to support his case. Looking at his numbers is fascinating. He had his magnificent season at 25, good years at 27 and 29, but a lot of what was supposed to be his prime was simply solid (partly because he was in Seattle). Then he landed in a better offensive situation in Boston and then Texas, and developed some old-man skills--look at the uptick in OBP starting at 31. He hasn't had another bonkers power season, but the selectivity and contact skills seem to be holding up well.
ReplyDeleteOh yeah, and: Dodgers or Rangers cap on his bust?
ReplyDeleteLol. Or Red Sox? Definitely not Mariners.
ReplyDelete