Friday, July 18, 2014

A sabermatic argument for Jack Morris's Hall of Fame case


As sabermatics* fanbois carry on with their vendetta against the Magnificent Mustachioed Magician, besmirching both the good name and Hall of Fame case of one Jack Morris, we, the defenders of tradition and the eye test and true grit, deem it worthwhile to respond. Although his case as one of the greatest pitchers of all time--and without peer in his ability to pitch to the score and perform in the clutch--should and can stand on its own, we nonetheless here advance an argument based on statistical analysis. In deigning to approach the question from this perspective, we in no way acknowledge any superiority in that approach despite its alleged objectivity and the fact that it can further build a case in favor of Mr. Morris.

Cutting-edge techniques allow us to quantify the uncountable contributions Jack made to the winning culture of his teams, encapsulating them in one easy-to-understand number that we can easily compare across eras. INTAN+ is a virtual rubicon of information:

I: Intelligence. Baseball intelligence, not that cognitive ability crap; being in the right place at the right time is a matter of baseball intelligence, not just chance.
N: Notable single-game performances. If you can recall a single game, it counts in this metric.
T: Team success. Because nothing says more about one guy's worthiness than the ability of a 27-man roster's success across 162 regular-season and some other post-season games.
A: Attitude. It can be positive, it can be negative; all that matters here is that it helps a guy's team win.
N: Narcissism. A real star/Hall of Famer knows he belongs; many will tell you so.
+: Indicates that this is a measure of comparison with the INTANs of a player's contemporaries, rather than just a raw number with no context. Thus, a 100 INTAN+ indicates a league-average player, while a 150 INTAN+ would indicate a player worth 150% of the league average player.

We start with the assumption that the average player is average: he begins at 100. The player is then assigned a score for each category, on a -20 to 20 scale, with a total of 100 points that may therefore be added to--or, let's not forget, deducted from--the player's starting point of 100. Several categories are complicated to evaluate, and deserve special consideration here. (1) Notable single-game performances come in two varieties, and should be weighted differently. For each Notable single-game performance turned in during the regular season, add one point; if, however, a Notable single-game performance happens to have occurred during the post-season or an All Star game, assign two points. (2) Team success may be defined in multiple ways, but some matter far more than others. For each time the player's team reached the playoffs (even if he was hurt, or useless that year), whether as league champion, division champion, wild card, or one-game wild-card participant (because all of those playoff positions are equally glorious), add one point. A player shall earn zero points if his team does not reach the playoffs, regardless of his individual merit/accomplishments or the team's overall record. Playoff series wins earn a player half a point, but a World Series earns him 3 points. (3) The player who knows he belongs and tells you can earn a maximum of 18 points, because if it's that obvious he shouldn't have to tell you. Since the player who doesn't have to tell you doesn't tell you, he's obviously even more obvious and so may be assigned 20 points.

The Captain, Derek Jeter, is of course the standard-bearer for INTAN+, the all-time leader by a fair margin. If Morris suffers by comparison, it is only as all mere mortals suffer by comparison to the awe-inspiring stature of the gods. A breakdown:

I: 20 points. Has he ever not been in the right place at the right time? He was intelligent enough to get drafted by the Yankees, who could afford to surround him with highly paid, exceptional talent. He knew he'd need to be in that particular spot to cut off a ball and backhand-flip it to Jorge Posada in 2001. He knew he'd want to lead off his final All-Star game in 2014 so he could double off Adam Wainwright before the Cardinals ace warmed up enough to not groove a mistake fastball down the middle of the plate.
N: 20 points. As any Yankee fan will tell you, these are numerous. Every single 4-for-4 was magically memorable and unforgettable, because each one came in a game the Yankees absolutely had to win. Why is this score artificially capped at 20? It's so Jeter can't break the stat.
T: 20 points. Modern-day dynasty, captained by--who else?--The Captain.
A: 20 points. Some may criticize him as milquetoast, even boring, but Jeter was inevitably steady, calm, and confident, and never openly criticized his teammates or his opponents. Set the tone perfectly for his veteran teammates to continue going about their business professionally, just like they'd always done.
N: 20 points. It's obvious, and he doesn't need to tell you. So much so in fact that everyone else did it for him in 2014's farewell tour.

Jeter's INTAN+ therefore clocks in at a mind-boggling 206. Where did the extra 6 come from? Glad you asked.

Jeter has always been the foil to Alex Rodriguez, the guy whose other stats would seem to suggest he should be revered above the Yankee, but INTAN+ exists to show us the error of those ways. A breakdown:

I: -20 points. Made the mistake of getting drafted by the Mariners and playing for them, then choosing the Rangers to sign his first quarter-million dollar contract, then forcing a trade to a Yankees team that didn't need him because it was already legendary and all he could do was get lost in the shuffle. Willingly moved from the most important defensive position to a less important one. Of his 654 career home runs, 612 came with no one on base or his team already in the lead. Used PEDs or was dumb enough to get caught.
N: 0 points. Do you remember any?
T: 9 points. His team won the World Series in 2009, but his 5 home runs and 12 RBI in the first two rounds were empty stats. Yanks clearly should have won in '04, '05, '06, '07, and '10-'12, but he held them back.
A: -20 points.
N: -20 points. Will spend lots of time telling anyone who will listen that he is a star and belongs in the Hall of Fame. Too much time. Especially for someone who used PEDs, and therefore should forever be ineligible for special All-Star cards in packs of Topps, the Hall, compassion, or free Slurpees at 7-11 on July 11.

Rodriguez's total: 41, the Mendoza Line of INTAN+

All of which brings us back to Jack Morris, who presumably falls somewhere between. Let's see where.

I: 16 points. His mustache has a mind of its own, and two brains are better than one. At least one of them always knew the score, and exactly how many runs he could still give up to get the win. 
N: 14 points. That World Series Game 7. Limited legs on this one. Were there others, too?
T: 14 points. Lots of competent teams. One World Series title.
A: 18 points. Gritty. Business like. Feared by opponents, apparently.
N: 16 points. Keeps telling us about it.

A total of 178, indicating his intangibles were precisely 78% more valuable than the average major league player during the course of his career. Explain to me how that is not a Hall of Fame career right there?

If Charlie Kelly can count gasoline, we can count these contributions from an individual winner to a winning team.

*That's on purpose.

1 comment:

  1. This is amazing. There are entire portions of this that don't make any sense. Jack Morris tells anybody who will listen and gets + points? In case it isn't obvious, I'm cracking up laughing. This is exactly the kind of crap that people are peddling to tell us that Morris belongs in the hall of fame. Everybody around him that was great measured up for the HOF, but he didn't have to because the rules didn't apply to him. Clearly INTAN+ also does not apply to him because he can get positive points for bitching about not being in the HOF! Also, "Feared by opponents, apparently." Oh my God I'm dying laughing at this point!!! We need to sell this stat to ESPN. It's pretty comparable to Total QBR!

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